Synchronization Likelihood in Aircraft Trajectories Assessment of relationships between trajectories, and their implications for safety
نویسندگان
چکیده
In the continuous effort for ensuring increasing levels of safety, it is of utmost importance to understand the reasons behind the occurrence of operational errors. In this contribution, we propose the use of the Trajectory Synchronization Likelihood metric for the analysis of two types of events: situations resulting in a reduced separation between aircrafts, and situations that might have resulted in similar conditions but were solved on time. Results indicate that unsolved events are associated with highly synchronized pairs of aircraft, which have been deviated from the usual expected trajectories. This opens new way for the development of more effective automated safety systems, capable of detecting in real time events that are known to have a high probability of resulting in a conflict. Keywords-safety; Trajectory Synchronization Likelihood; data mining
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